Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis

A sequel to Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications (Cambridge University Press, 1996, edited by Thomas W. Hertel), this new volume presents the technical aspects of the Global Trade Analysis Program's global dynamic framework (GDyn) and its applications within important global policy issues. The book covers a diverse set of topics including trade reform, growth, investment, technology, demographic change and the environment. Environmental issues are particularly well-suited for analysis with GDyn, and this volume covers its uses with climate change, resource use and technological progress in agriculture. Other applications presented in the book focus on integration issues such as rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in services, harmonization of technical standards, sanitary and photo-sanitary regulations, streamlining of customs procedures, and demographic change and migration. Advance praise: 'Not only modelers but also members of the economic and environmental policy communities have been waiting eagerly for this volume. Most major market and policy shocks involve impacts that are spread over several years and more than one political cycle, and the extent and speed of adjustment is of as much interest as the final outcome. The diverse range of important applications in this volume illustrates how useful this modeling tool is and will be for years to come.' Kym Anderson, University of Adelaide 'This book will make the dynamic GTAP model GDyn accessible in the same way that the 1997 Global Trade Analysis book did for the comparative-static GTAP model. Applications in the book address topics that require a dynamic model - including China's WTO accession, land-use change resulting from global economic integration, and the consequences of global demographic change for labor force growth and economic performance. Other policy modelers will be able to learn from these cases how to do their own analyses of similar topics.' Ken Pearson, Monash University 'Making computable general equilibrium models dynamic like the world they represent has long been a priority for modelers. This book lays out the GTAP team's approach with admirable clarity and detail and with a number of excellent examples. It will help many users tackle dynamic problems and so contribute greatly to the world of international policy analysis.' L. Alan Winters, University of SussexPart I. Introduction and Overview: 1. Introduction Elena Ianchovichina; Part II. Structure of Dynamic GTAP Framework: 2. Theoretical structure of dynamic GTAP Elena Ianchovichina and Robert McDougall; 3. Behavioral and entropy parameters in the dynamic GTAP model Alla Golub and Robert McDougall; 4. An overview of the dynamic GTAP data base: the data base construction and aggregation programs Robert McDougall, Terrie Walmsley, Alla Golub, Elena Ianchovichina and Ken Itakura; 5. A baseline scenario for the dynamic GTAP model Terrie Walmsley, Betina Dimaranan and Robert McDougall; 6. Welfare analysis in the dynamic GTAP model Terrie Walmsley, Robert McDougall and Elena Ianchovichina; 7. Implementing GDyn in the RunDynam software Ken Itakura, Elena Ianchovichina, Csilla Lakatos and Terrie Walmsley; Part III. Applications of Dynamic GTAP: 8. Assessing the impact of China's WTO accession on investment Terrie Walmsley, Thomas Hertel and Elena Ianchovichina; 9. Dynamic effects of the 'new-age' free trade agreement between Japan and Singapore Thomas Hertel, Terrie Walmsley and Ken Itakura; 10. Resource use and technological progress in agriculture Elena Ianchovichina, Roy Darwin and Robin Shoemaker; 11. Global economic integration and land use change Alla Golub and Thomas W. Hertel; 12. The contribution of productivity linkages to the general equilibrium analysis of free trade agreements Ken Itakura, Thomas Hertel and Jeffrey Reimer; 13. Global demographic change, labor force growth and economic performance Rod Tyers and Quinn Shi; Part IV. Evaluation of Dynamic GTAP Framework: 14. Household saving behavior in GDyn: evaluation and revision Alla Golub and Robert McDougall; 15. Implications for global economic analysis Elena Ianchovichina and Terrie Walmsley; Appendix Terrie Walmsley and Robert McDougall.