Thinking and Deciding 4e

Beginning with its first edition and through subsequent editions, Thinking and Deciding has established itself as the required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human cognition and rationality. In this, the fourth edition, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions - How should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? - and his expanded treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Baye's theorem, and moral thinking. With the student in mind, the fourth edition emphasises the development of an understanding of the fundamental concepts in judgement and decision making. This book is essential reading for students and scholars in judgement and decision making and related fields, including psychology, economics, law, medicine, and business. 'This magisterial book ... lays out the issues in exemplary fashion ... This book is as balanced and clear as one is likely to find. It is an outstanding introduction to and summary of the psychology of decision making and should be widely read.' Medical Decision Making 'This volume represents an impressive textbook that is worthy of consideration in courses on thinking and decision making. ... Well written and well produced.' Contemporary Psychology '... An impressively broad and serious guide to the psychology of thinking and deciding.' ChoicePreface; Part I. Thinking in General: 1. What is thinking?; 2. The study of thinking; 3. Rationality; 4. Logic; Part II. Probability and Belief: 5. Normative theory of probability; 6. Descriptive theory of probability judgment; 7. Hypothesis testing; 8. Judgment of correlation and contingency; 9. Actively open-minded thinking; Part III. Decisions and Plans: 10. Normative theory of choice; 11. Description of choice under uncertainty; 12. Choice under certainty; 13. Utility measurement; 14. Decision analysis and values; 15. Quantitative judgment; 16. Moral judgement and choice; 17. Fairness and justice; 18. Social dilemmas; 19. Decisions about the future; 20. Risk.