World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

This book addresses systematically and quantitatively the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Seven background chapters summarize past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education; examine relevant theories and identify key determining factors; and set the assumptions that are subsequently translated into alternative scenario projections to 2100. These assumptions derive from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents. Another chapter details their translation into multi-dimensional projections by age, sex, and level of education. The book's final chapters analyse the results, emphasizing alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. An appendix and associated web link present detailed results for all countries. The book shows that adding education to age and sex substantially alters the way we see the future. This is a path-breaking book which signals the ever-increasing importance of education to demography, economics and the delivery of equal opportunities and fair outcomes. The Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP, UN Special Envoy for Global Education This monumental, pioneering volume proselytizes for a new trinity of fundamentals of demography: age, sex, and education. If this book succeeds in its mission, as I hope it will, the future will look different, not only for the science of demography, but also for all people's lives. Professor Joel E. Cohen, The Rockefeller University and Columbia University, New York This is a valuable guide to data, analysis, and expert opinion bearing on the world's demographic future. Particularly instructive is the consistent focus on the transformative role of educational progress. Professor Samuel H. Preston, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia This book on human numbers and the quality of lives will deservedly become our first port of call whenever we seek to understand our past and our possible futures. It is simply a monumental piece of work. Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom1. Introduction ; 2. How Education Drives Demography and Knowledge Informs Projections ; 3. Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries ; 4. Future Fertility in High Fertility Countries ; 5. Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries ; 6. Future Mortality in High Mortality Countries ; 7. The Future of International Migration ; 8. Future Education Trends ; 9. Data and Methods ; 10. The Rise of Global Human Capital and the End of World Population Growth ; 11. Remeasuring 21st Century Population Ageing ; 12. Alternative Scenarios in the Context of Sustainable Development ; Epilogue: Education Changes our View of the Future ; Appendix I: Forecasting Mortality Convergence up to 2100 ; Appendix II: Tabular Appendix